The day of reckoning is here.
In a few hours, the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) will bid out the 289-megawatt Tiwi and 458.53-MW Makban geothermal complex.
According to PSALM, the bidding will close at 12 noon, followed by the screening of the documents at 1:30 p.m.
How would this bidding turn out?
PSALM vice president for asset management and electricity trading Froilan Tampinco earlier said there are four pre-qualified bidders for the Tiwi-Makban assets which he declined to name, but the Philippine Star quoted its own sources that these are Aboitiz Power Renewable, Korea Electric Power Co., Suez Energy and Lopez-owned Energy Development Corp.
While sources said Suez Energy is contemplating on backing out from its bid for Tiwi-Makban, Tampinco considers the European power firm still part of the list of bidders. Suez Energy would probably confirm the rumors and back out altogether.
Korea Electric Power Co. would probably get cold feet and would not place its bid, despite its assumed exhaustive due diligence efforts.
Aboitiz Power Renewables, upon the recommendations of its presumably foreign technical consultants, would post a bid, but its bid would likely be below government projections. The Aboitiz power group has been active in acquiring hydro assets and earlier, distribution companies. As the name of its vehicle suggests, it is coming strongly into renewables, especially if the renewable energy bill is passed.
That would leave Lopez-owned EDC the strongest contender. It is of course drolling over the Tiwi-Makban assets, as the acquisition would put it the undisputed leader in geothermal development in the Philippines and would enhance its image as capable of managing such concerns not only here but also abroad.
Should EDC acquire the Tiwi-Makban assets, it won't be operating the field. That job is for Chevron Geothermal Holdings Phils., the current operator. And, in an ironic twist of fate, it would be holding the other side of the GRSC stick--similar to the very contract which its president and CEO tenaciously clings to in the case of Palinpinon.
But the Lopez group wouldn't be as aggressive this time compared to how it has acquired EDC from the government. In that bidding, First Gen bid about P 9.20 per share for the government shares, a large premium from the market price of around P 6 a share, and way much higher that the other competitive bids.
Since then, the Icelandic partners of First Gen in Red Vulcan Holdings, the corporate vehicle used by the Lopezes to acquire EDC, have divested from it, and First Gen is now contemplating, or is in the process of disposing of at least 40 % Red Vulcan Holdings formerly held by the Icelandic interests, as reported in the papers.
After all, it has to pay for a portion of the financing for EDC which is not a paltry sum.
Apprehensions are rife that the bidding for the Tiwi-Makban geothermal power facilities may be pushed back anew due unresolved issues on geothermal supply contracts which have been discussed in this spot earlier.
The sale has been attempted since late 2005. The attempt this year was first set on June 4, then to June 27 and finally today.
PSALM, however, tries hard to put up a brave face saying it would gain the full support and participation of the qualified bidders after it attached more than 400-MW of power supply contracts to the sale of the Tiwi-Makban power facilities. It is however silent on the contentious issues surrounding the geothermal resources sales contract for Tiwi-Makban.
Based on the above scenario, one cannot have much confidence in the success of today's bidding.
This time, I fervently wish that I am completely dead wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment